Medic versus Mafia, Night Zero by the Numbers

The medic is a town aligned power role, with a very special ability. She can save a player from being killed in the night. There are 3 mafia, 1 cop, 1 medic and 1 vigilante in the commonly played ‘All Star Setup’. To start the game the mafia team will secretly kill two players (in this analysis I will ignore the sub par play of the mafia stacking their kills on one player). If the mafia and medic take random actions in the night there is a 13.01% chance that the medic will save someone the mafia kills.

I ran a simulation of what the expected medic night zero save percentage should be for the Daily Mafia community. They play different set ups to accommodate a changing number of players (15-22). With more players it is obvious that the medic making a save is less likely, I ran a simulation to prove it.

medicSaveSimulator

As expected it is a little harder to get a night zero save in DM (11.88%) than in the standard All Star Setup (13.01%). What do the recorded games tell us? In the short preseason on Daily Mafia, the medic has made a save on night zero 9 of 27 games or a save 33.33% of the time. That is a staggering 3x what is predicted with random actions!

The medics are using the metagame to more consistently save players than what is likely with random selection. Although it should be noted the town alignment only won 44.44% of games during the season, so the value of a night zero medic save is unclear.

If a mafia team values avoiding a medic save on night zero there are two approaches it can take: the mafia can select night kills at random (nullifying the medics ability to use strategy to make and informed save), or a confident mafia team can identify the strategy the medic is likely to use and pick kills that do not fit the criteria of a medic save. With more games being recorded, there will be new information revealed about the duel between the medic and mafia that happens before the cameras turn on!

-tmi

source: DailyMafia Preseason

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Medic versus Mafia, Night Zero by the Numbers

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