Medic versus Mafia, Night Zero by the Numbers

The medic is a town aligned power role, with a very special ability. She can save a player from being killed in the night. There are 3 mafia, 1 cop, 1 medic and 1 vigilante in the commonly played ‘All Star Setup’. To start the game the mafia team will secretly kill two players (in this analysis I will ignore the sub par play of the mafia stacking their kills on one player). If the mafia and medic take random actions in the night there is a 13.01% chance that the medic will save someone the mafia kills.

I ran a simulation of what the expected medic night zero save percentage should be for the Daily Mafia community. They play different set ups to accommodate a changing number of players (15-22). With more players it is obvious that the medic making a save is less likely, I ran a simulation to prove it.

medicSaveSimulator

As expected it is a little harder to get a night zero save in DM (11.88%) than in the standard All Star Setup (13.01%). What do the recorded games tell us? In the short preseason on Daily Mafia, the medic has made a save on night zero 9 of 27 games or a save 33.33% of the time. That is a staggering 3x what is predicted with random actions!

The medics are using the metagame to more consistently save players than what is likely with random selection. Although it should be noted the town alignment only won 44.44% of games during the season, so the value of a night zero medic save is unclear.

If a mafia team values avoiding a medic save on night zero there are two approaches it can take: the mafia can select night kills at random (nullifying the medics ability to use strategy to make and informed save), or a confident mafia team can identify the strategy the medic is likely to use and pick kills that do not fit the criteria of a medic save. With more games being recorded, there will be new information revealed about the duel between the medic and mafia that happens before the cameras turn on!

-tmi

source: DailyMafia Preseason

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Medic versus Mafia, Night Zero by the Numbers

Top Super Mafia All Stars Players

The graph below is the average win percentage of all players with at least 20 games played on Super Mafia All Stars. Requiring 20 or more games keeps players with a low sample size off the list, and creates a manageable list of 22 players. So when I use the term ‘players’ I will be referring to players with 20+ recorded games, unless specified differently.

IndWinRate

This figure is an expression of player win percentage. It can be used for basic analysis, like breaking players into tiers. Boone is the only player above 60% win rate, and there is a natural break after Phil where win percentage falls off and the top tier ends.

It does not show details like, CPHoya’s 100% mafia aligned win percentage. After reading that you may wonder why his red portion is smaller than expected, but that is because he has been mafia in a below average 16% of his games (average is ⅕, 20%), and as expected, the majority of his wins come from his town aligned games.

In depth statistical analysis is for future articles (did you know Kaution is the only player to have a longer life expectancy as town than as mafia?!). This is just getting our feet wet on what is possible thanks to the tracking of Mafia statistics.

-tmi

source: All Star Stats

Top Super Mafia All Stars Players