All Stars: Through Week 17

All Stars is on tonight, the following graph shows how the five most active players have performed after 17 weeks.

AS2_1-5-16.png

The five veterans in the above figure have been winners between .400 and .600 of games. Player’s Mafia aligned games have been marked with a triangle matching their color, upward triangles indicate the player has won while downward indicate a loss.

A game played in the All Star league has 3 Mafia and 12 Town. A Mafia aligned win gives up to 11 players a recorded loss (one or two Town are eliminated before the game starts in earnest), winning in this manner is the most effective way to separate from the pack. Of course the opposite is true, when the Mafia team loses it gives up to 11 players a win and inflates the overall win percentage of the league.

 

Source: All Star Season 2

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All Stars: Through Week 17

Sam, Daily Mafia Season One Stats Games

Sam11_05_15

 

The following graph displays the outcome of a game when Sam is removed from a game. For example, Town has lost 7/8 games when Sam is killed night one. If Sam is removed during the night it is because the Mafia chose to eliminate him, if Sam is removed during the day it is because the players voted him out. Only games when Sam is the Town alignment are considered for this graph.

Sam

Sam, Daily Mafia Season One Stats Games

100 Games of All Stars!

The All Stars stat book is being retired after 100 games.  Check back as the new stat pages begin to fill up, players start fresh and new faces join the veterans!

The final visualizations of All Stars Season 1 is presented with little comment.

ind9:1

Congratulations Boone, the most winning player! The average win percentage of veteran players is 50.25%.


town9:1

Aaron is top town.


maf9:1

CPHoya locks in his perfect mafia win percentage.


diff9:1

A player at zero is at equilibrium when comparing town and mafia win rate.

-tmi

source: All Star Stats

100 Games of All Stars!

Medic versus Mafia, Night Zero by the Numbers

The medic is a town aligned power role, with a very special ability. She can save a player from being killed in the night. There are 3 mafia, 1 cop, 1 medic and 1 vigilante in the commonly played ‘All Star Setup’. To start the game the mafia team will secretly kill two players (in this analysis I will ignore the sub par play of the mafia stacking their kills on one player). If the mafia and medic take random actions in the night there is a 13.01% chance that the medic will save someone the mafia kills.

I ran a simulation of what the expected medic night zero save percentage should be for the Daily Mafia community. They play different set ups to accommodate a changing number of players (15-22). With more players it is obvious that the medic making a save is less likely, I ran a simulation to prove it.

medicSaveSimulator

As expected it is a little harder to get a night zero save in DM (11.88%) than in the standard All Star Setup (13.01%). What do the recorded games tell us? In the short preseason on Daily Mafia, the medic has made a save on night zero 9 of 27 games or a save 33.33% of the time. That is a staggering 3x what is predicted with random actions!

The medics are using the metagame to more consistently save players than what is likely with random selection. Although it should be noted the town alignment only won 44.44% of games during the season, so the value of a night zero medic save is unclear.

If a mafia team values avoiding a medic save on night zero there are two approaches it can take: the mafia can select night kills at random (nullifying the medics ability to use strategy to make and informed save), or a confident mafia team can identify the strategy the medic is likely to use and pick kills that do not fit the criteria of a medic save. With more games being recorded, there will be new information revealed about the duel between the medic and mafia that happens before the cameras turn on!

-tmi

source: DailyMafia Preseason

Medic versus Mafia, Night Zero by the Numbers